Assessment of the Use of Shahed 136 Drones by the Russian Military
Overview of the Data Collection Period
The data analyzed for this report covers the period from August 1, 2024, to March 1, 2025. This period is significant because it includes the Russian military’s deployment of decoy drones, such as the Gerberat and Parody, which have made it challenging to assess the actual use of Shahed 136 drones.
Challenges in Assessing the Use of Shahed 136 Drones
Analysis of the Data
The data analyzed for this report includes open-source information verified by the Institute and official statements released by the Armed Forces of Ukraine. The data shows that the Russian military has been using Shahed 136 drones to attack Ukrainian forces and infrastructure, particularly in the Donbas region.
The Shahed Drone Crisis
The Shahed drone crisis refers to the large-scale deployment of Shahed drones by Russia in Ukraine, which has been ongoing since August 2024. The crisis has been marked by a significant number of drones being launched, with a substantial portion of them failing to hit their targets.
Types of Shahed Drones
The Shahed drones are a type of Iranian-made unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV). They are designed to be used for reconnaissance and strike missions. The Shahed drones are equipped with a variety of payloads, including explosives, cameras, and communication equipment. * The Shahed drones are known for their ability to fly at high altitudes and cover long distances. * They are also equipped with advanced navigation systems, allowing them to accurately target their objectives. * The Shahed drones are powered by solar panels or batteries, making them a relatively sustainable option.*
Impact on Ukraine
The Shahed drone crisis has had a significant impact on Ukraine. The drones have been used to attack military targets, including airfields, command centers, and other infrastructure. However, the majority of the drones have failed to hit their targets, resulting in significant losses for Russia. * Many of the drones have been downed via electronic warfare interference or shot down by Ukrainian air defenses. * Some drones have even turned back to Russian or Belarusian territory, indicating that they were not designed to operate in Ukraine’s airspace.
4 launches per day. This is a significant increase from the average daily launch rate of 64.4 launches per day in the period from January 1, 2015, to December 31, 2015.
Introduction
The Iranian military has been actively involved in launching Shahed drones, a type of unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) designed for reconnaissance and strike missions. The Iranian military has been using these drones to target various locations, including military bases and infrastructure. The launch rate of Shahed drones has been increasing steadily over the past few years, with a significant spike in recent months.
Causes of the Increase in Launch Rate
The increase in launch rate can be attributed to several factors. Firstly, the Iranian military has been using the Shahed drones to target locations in Syria, Iraq, and Yemen, which are considered to be key battlegrounds in the region. This has led to an increase in the number of launches, as the Iranian military seeks to support its allies in these countries.
Role of Social Media and Propaganda
Another factor contributing to the increase in launch rate is the role of social media and propaganda. The Iranian military has been using social media platforms to spread propaganda and misinformation about its military operations, including the use of Shahed drones. This has led to an increase in the number of launches, as the Iranian military seeks to create a sense of urgency and fear among its enemies.
Economic Factors
Economic factors also play a significant role in the increase in launch rate.
The Russian military has been using these drones to target Iranian military targets and infrastructure.
The Gerbera Drone
The Gerbera drone is a Russian-made, unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) designed to mimic the appearance of a commercial airliner.
The Iranian government has not released official statistics on the number of drones used in these attacks. The lack of transparency and the absence of a centralized database to track the use of drones in military operations make it difficult to determine the actual number of Shahed 136 drones used in these attacks.
The Shahed 136 Drone: A Game-Changer in Modern Warfare
The Shahed 136 drone is a medium-range, unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) developed by Iran. It is designed to carry a payload of up to 25 kilograms and has a range of approximately 250 kilometers.
4. David Albright, Spencer Faragasso, and the Good ISIS Team, “Imagery Update: New Construction Identified at the Alabuga Shahed 136 Production Facilities,” Institute for Science and International Security, September 24, 2024, https://isis-online.org/isis-reports/detail/imagery-update-new-construction-identified-at-the-alabuga-shahed-136/. ↩
